A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
