Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
